The Jobs Report – February 2024

Highlight

In February the economy added 275K jobs, an increase from January’s revised gain of 229K and better than expectations of a 200K job gain.  December and January’s gains were revised down by a total of 167K.  Downward revisions to the establishment survey have been the norm for the past year. Private payrolls increased from 177K last month to 223K in February.  

What You Should To Know:

• The Household survey reported a decrease of 184K jobs this month after a loss of 31K in January. The decrease in jobs along with an increase in the labor force of 150K pushed the unemployment rate up by 0.2% to 3.9%, the highest unemployment rate since February 2022.  
• In February, the service sector added 204K jobs led by health care with 91K jobs. In addition, goods producing added 19K, and the government added 52K jobs.  
• The index of hours worked rebounded in February with a 0.4% increase, offsetting January’s 0.4% decline. The frigid weather in January compared to a warmer February probably contributed to the volatility in this statistic. Still for the year hours worked is flat, which does not bode well for above average economic growth in Q1. 
• Notable among the sectors was the drop in the number of temporary workers by 15K. Companies have been consistently decreasing temporary workers for the past year, this is not a positive for strong job growth going forward. On a positive note, overtime hours increased by 0.2, a positive for future job growth.
•  Overall this was a solid employment report. The economy continues to add jobs across most sectors. With the UAW strike last fall and the frigid weather in January, there have been distortions to the report for the past several months. These seem to be evening out, and the picture of the economy is one of solid growth but not a reacceleration that many had feared.  We don’t believe this report will alter the Fed’s policy this spring. We look for the Fed to reduce rates in the summer as inflation approaches their 2% target.